IEA Projects Global Oil & Gas Demand Will Rise Through 2050

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The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its 2025 World Energy Outlook, projecting that under its “current policies” scenario, global oil demand could rise to 113 million barrels per day by 2050 — a significant shift from earlier predictions of a demand peak.

The report suggests that despite climate goals, fossil fuel demand may remain strong for decades.

Underlying this projection is the IEA’s assumption of limited or slow policy progress toward green energy in certain regions.

The agency also warns of a potential oil supply glut, forecasting a 4 million barrels per day surplus by 2026, driven by rising production even as demand growth moderates.

Implications:
This outlook raises serious concerns for the global energy transition, signaling that investments in fossil fuels may continue in the near term. It also complicates climate efforts as demand may outpace cleaner energy adoption under current policy settings.