Expert Insights: Will Temperatures Hit Record Highs? What to Expect for Summer
Reassuring Climate Outlook from Boğaziçi University’s Climate Change Center
The Director of the Climate Change and Policy Application and Research Center at Boğaziçi University, Prof. Dr. Levent Kurnaz, recently shared optimistic insights regarding recent climate patterns. He emphasized that the extraordinary temperature records observed over the past two years are unlikely to recur this year. “Most probably, we will not witness the hottest summer on record this year,” he stated, adding, “While it’s unlikely to set new extreme heat records, this does not mean we should expect a cooler year. In fact, compared to 2024 and 2023, 2025 is projected to rank as the third hottest year on record, which is still significant but indicates a moderation in extreme temperatures.”
Latest Global Temperature Data and Trends
Recent data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service highlights that last month, the global average surface temperature surpassed the May average of the 1991-2020 baseline by 0.53°C, reaching a mean of 15.79°C. This marks the second hottest May on record. Notably, May 2024 was 0.12°C hotter than last May, which set the previous record, and 0.06°C warmer than May 2020, the third hottest May. The last 22 months have consistently maintained global temperatures approximately 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, underscoring the ongoing warming trend.
Additionally, during spring 2025, covering March through May, the global average temperature was recorded at 0.59°C above the 1991-2020 average, ranking as the second highest spring temperature on record.
Comparative Analysis of Yearly Heat Levels
Prof. Kurnaz explained that the likelihood of experiencing the hottest day of the summer globally is minimal this year. “Looking at the temperature patterns in March, April, and May, 2024 remains the second hottest year after 2025. However, after mid-May, the temperature difference between 2024 and 2025 widened significantly,” he clarified. He also pointed out that in Turkey, April was characterized by unusually cool weather and severe frost events, which contributed to a perception of a less hot period. Globally, however, 2025 is considered the second hottest year on record.
He further noted that during early May, some days experienced high temperatures, and between May 10-15, a few days recorded temperatures as the hottest compared to 2024. Yet, as May progressed, temperatures declined and fell behind the levels seen in 2024.
Forecast for the Upcoming Summer and Climate Dynamics
“This summer, we do not anticipate experiencing the hottest temperatures on record,” Prof. Kurnaz stated confidently. He projected that summer temperatures will likely be lower than those observed in 2023 and 2024. “Most probably, this year will not break any significant heat records both domestically and globally. However, it is important to understand that phenomena once considered rare are becoming more common,” he explained.
Kurnaz attributed this trend to the recent end of El Niño conditions, which previously contributed to global temperature spikes. “Currently, the absence of El Niño-like pressure means 2025 may be relatively cooler,” he added. He cautioned, however, that these fluctuations should not be misinterpreted as signs of a cooling phase, emphasizing that “compared to 2024 and 2023, 2025 is likely to be the third hottest year on record,” and not a cool or average year.
This article has been created, translated, and reviewed with the support of artificial intelligence. For further details, please refer to our Terms and Conditions. Vezir Agency
02:00
News