Cem Gürdeniz: Turkey’s Southern Security Doctrine Has Effectively Collapsed

Introduction by Vice Admiral Cem Gürdeniz

Retired Vice Admiral Cem Gürdeniz has recently provided profound insights into the current state of global geopolitics, military tensions, and economic dynamics. His analysis covers the evolving nature of warfare, the deterrent power of nuclear arsenals, and the shifting balance of world power, emphasizing the importance of strategic awareness in these tumultuous times.

The Future of Global Warfare and Nuclear Deterrence

Gürdeniz highlighted that historically, the most devastating wars were driven by distinct geopolitical and ideological factors. Since the advent of nuclear weaponry in 1945, a new paradigm of deterrence has emerged, fundamentally altering the course of international conflict. He stated, "The world has created a nuclear horror balance since 1945, and with nuclear weapons now in the hands of great powers capable of destruction on an unprecedented scale, I am skeptical that traditional large-scale wars akin to the First or Second World Wars will reoccur."

He further explained that nuclear deterrence has established a fragile equilibrium, preventing full-scale conflicts that could threaten global civilization. Gürdeniz remarked, "The possession of nuclear weapons by major states acts as a powerful safeguard against total annihilation, as even a conventional conflict risks escalating into nuclear warfare, which could drastically alter the planet’s geography and environment."

Concerns Over Nuclear Escalation

Addressing recent warnings from influential figures like former U.S. Intelligence Chief Tulsi Gabbard, Gürdeniz pointed out the dangerous efforts by certain factions to provoke nuclear conflicts. He warned, "Some powerful interest groups are actively pushing for escalation, aiming to ignite a nuclear confrontation. Such reckless pursuits could lead humanity to an irreversible catastrophe, leaving no sanctuary or escape for the global population."

The Dominance of Financial Capital and Its Impact on Global Stability

Gürdeniz shed light on the vast disparity between the actual productive capacity of the world economy and the immense financial wealth circulating globally. He revealed, "While the combined gross domestic product of all nations amounts to approximately $110 trillion, the total assets controlled by global financial capital reach an astonishing $720 trillion. This concentration of wealth underscores capitalism’s relentless pursuit of profit growth, often at the expense of social and economic stability."

The Decline of U.S. Global Hegemony and the Rise of China

Commenting on the shifting power dynamics, Gürdeniz observed that the United States' hegemony is waning. He noted, "In 1945, the U.S. contributed over 50% to global production; today, that share has diminished to roughly 15%. Meanwhile, China is rapidly closing this gap, positioning itself to reshape the global balance of power." He emphasized that this decline extends beyond economic influence, affecting military and technological superiority as well.

Russia's Strategic Advances in Ukraine

Turning to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Gürdeniz analyzed Russia’s military progression, stating, "Russian forces are steadily advancing along the Dnieper River, with the strategic goal of reaching Odesa. If unchecked, this movement could significantly alter regional dynamics." He explained that Russia's approach aims to safeguard Ukraine’s natural defensive buffer zones, which could provoke heightened tensions between Western nations and Moscow, risking broader conflict escalation.

Turkey’s Foreign Policy and Security Challenges

Gürdeniz critically assessed Turkey’s current foreign policy stance, asserting, "Turkey’s southern security doctrine has become increasingly ineffective. The emergence of a Kurdish state in the region must be prevented at all costs to maintain national sovereignty." He warned that passive diplomatic strategies might expose Turkey to greater threats, emphasizing the need for assertive and strategic defense measures.

Revisiting Kemalism: The Path Forward for Turkey

In discussing Turkey’s ideological future, Gürdeniz referenced the article titled "Turkey's Inevitable Future: Return to Kemalism." He explained that the six foundational principles of Kemalism require redefinition in the contemporary context. "To ensure social harmony and economic justice, principles like populism and statism must be revitalized," he argued. "As social and economic inequalities deepen, the core tenets of Kemalism will regain importance, fostering internal stability and balanced growth."

Conclusion

Gürdeniz’s comprehensive analysis underscores the complexities of current geopolitical tensions, economic disparities, and ideological shifts. His insights serve as a vital reminder of the interconnectedness of military security, economic stability, and national sovereignty in shaping the future of the world order.