Central Bank to Announce Interest Rate Decision Today: What Are the Expectations?

Market Overview and Investor Focus

Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming interest rate decision by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Yesterday, the domestic stock market experienced a decline, with the Borsa Istanbul's BIST 100 index ending the session down by 1.54%, closing at 9,196.13 points amid a predominantly sell-off trend. Meanwhile, the June futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the VİOP platform traded at 10,346.00 points in yesterday evening's session, indicating a 0.5% increase from the closing level of the regular session.

Interest Rate Decision: What Are Analysts Expecting?

The upcoming announcement from the CBRT has become a focal point for market participants, with expectations divided. According to the AA Finance expectation survey, most economists anticipate the central bank will maintain its current policy rate at 46%. However, there are divergent views, with some analysts predicting different potential moves: two economists foresee a 100 basis point cut, another suggests a 150 basis point reduction, while yet another foresees a more aggressive 350 basis point decrease.

The median forecast for the year-end policy rate among surveyed economists stands at 35.50%, reflecting cautious optimism about future monetary policy directions.

Currency Market Movements

The USD/TRY exchange rate experienced a slight uptick yesterday, rising by 0.1% to close at 39.5220. Today, at the opening of the interbank trading session, the dollar is trading at 39.5570, which is 0.1% higher than yesterday’s close, indicating ongoing stability with a slight upward bias.

Market Outlook and Key Data Releases

Market analysts highlight that today’s trading will be influenced by a busy schedule of economic data releases both domestically and internationally. From a technical perspective, support levels for the BIST 100 index are identified at 9,100 and 9,000 points, with resistance levels at 9,200 and 9,300 points.

It’s important to note that U.S. markets will remain closed for the entire day, which could influence trading volume and market dynamics elsewhere.

Disclaimer

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