Iran Can Strategic Play in the Strait of Hormuz to Stop Trump from Impacting Israel

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Intensified Israeli Airstrikes on Iranian Targets

At precisely 03:00 on June 13, Israel launched an unprecedented series of aerial assaults targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and military installations. Over 200 Israeli aircraft participated in these operations, showcasing a significant escalation in regional military activity. Mossad operatives, along with special forces units operating clandestinely within Iranian territory, contributed to the strikes using advanced drones and missile technology. The coordinated effort aimed to cripple Iran’s nuclear capabilities and weaken its military infrastructure.

During these intense strikes, Iran suffered the loss of key military and scientific personnel, including Chief of General Staff Muhammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards Commander Hossein Salami, and at least six nuclear physicists. The attacks inflicted extensive damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities, including reactors, uranium enrichment plants, missile launch ramps, and missile manufacturing sites, significantly impairing the country’s nuclear advancement.

Global Response and Iran’s Diplomatic Stance

While the international community condemned the Israeli strikes, Iran responded by announcing on June 15, Sunday, that it would suspend participation in nuclear negotiations with the United States, signaling a shift towards increased defiance. Diplomatic attention then pivoted to Washington, where President Donald Trump issued statements distancing the US from direct involvement in the strikes. He emphasized that the US had not participated but warned Iran about future consequences:

“Iran now has to make a deal. The planned subsequent attacks will be much more destructive. The world’s most lethal bombs are produced by the US, and Israel has many of these bombs. Make a deal immediately.”

Later, Trump issued a stark warning, stating, “I offered Iran a deal, they did not accept. Evacuate Tehran immediately!” thus heightening the regional tension and signaling a possible escalation.

Iran’s Counterattack and Regional Tensions

In retaliation, Iran launched ballistic missile strikes and deployed kamikaze drones targeting Israeli cities, hitting Tel Aviv and the port of Haifa. The attacks resulted in substantial destruction, emphasizing the ongoing escalation of hostilities in the region.

Expert Analysis: US-Turkey-Israel-Iran Dynamics

We engaged with renowned US analyst and researcher Şanlı Bahadır Koç to analyze the strategic implications of these developments, focusing on Netanyahu’s motives, US foreign policy stability, and regional power plays.

Current Status: Israel’s Military Advantage

Koç highlighted that the conflict appears to favor Israel at present, with a score of 3-1 in their favor. He elaborated that the duration and intensity of the conflict hinge significantly on the US stance. According to Koç:

• Israel has maintained the freedom to operate over Iranian territory, targeting key figures, institutions, and critical infrastructure such as refineries.
• This ongoing campaign is designed not only to weaken Iran’s nuclear program but also to erode public confidence in the regime’s ability to protect its citizens and resources.
• Potential long-term consequences include increased domestic opposition within Iran should the regime fail to project strength.

Strategic Use of the Strait of Hormuz

Koç explained that Iran could leverage the Strait of Hormuz as a pressure point to influence US actions. By subtly signaling the possibility of closing this vital maritime chokepoint, Iran can threaten to destabilize global oil markets, forcing Trump to reconsider military options. He emphasized:

“If Iran gives the impression it might close the Strait, Trump could intervene diplomatically to avoid an oil crisis. However, such a move would be temporary, as a prolonged closure would risk severe economic destabilization for the US and its allies.”

Potential for Special Operations and Underground Strikes

Koç suggested that Netanyahu might initiate covert operations targeting Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, especially the Fordow complex. The goal would be to destroy uranium enrichment sites and possibly facilitate a targeted commando raid, given the formidable underground defenses. He noted:

• Israel may aim to control surrounding areas via aerial surveillance and then deploy special forces to infiltrate and neutralize key nuclear sites.
• Such operations would be high-risk but could deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, potentially altering the regional power balance.

US Internal Politics and Trump’s Decision-Making

Koç argued that President Donald Trump’s foreign policy is highly unpredictable, influenced heavily by the last influential figure he speaks with, rather than structured strategic planning. He stated:

“Trump lacks a stable intellectual framework; his decisions are often impulsive and driven by immediate influences rather than long-term strategy. This makes US policy highly volatile, especially regarding Iran and Israel.”

Trump’s Personal Influence and Congressional Dynamics

He emphasized that Trump’s biases and impulsiveness could lead to unpredictable actions, including potential abandonment of support for Israel if political or economic pressures mount. Koç added that internal US political currents, including the influence of figures like Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk, could sway Trump’s decisions, potentially leading to a shift away from unwavering support for Israeli military operations.

Turkey’s Role and Diplomatic Engagement

Regarding Turkey’s involvement, Koç highlighted that the US reportedly informed Turkey of the planned Iranian attacks hours in advance, indicating a degree of trust in Ankara’s discretion. He observed:

“This suggests Trump’s confidence in Turkey’s ability to keep secret sensitive information, which could be part of broader diplomatic negotiations. Our leadership’s active phone conversations with Trump reflect Turkey’s strategic positioning within this complex web of regional and global interests.”

Conclusion: Navigating a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

Koç concluded that the ongoing conflict underscores the fragile and unpredictable nature of Middle Eastern geopolitics, where regional actors, superpower influences, and covert operations intertwine. The future trajectory depends heavily on US domestic politics, Iran’s responses, and Israel’s strategic calculations, with all parties maneuvering within a delicate and volatile environment.