Lebanese Expert Warns of Escalating Iran-Israel Tensions and Increased State Involvement

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Expert Insights on Regional Dynamics and Iran’s Nuclear Negotiations

Dr. Joseph Helou, a distinguished scholar specializing in Political Science and International Relations at the Lebanese American University, provided a comprehensive analysis in an exclusive interview with Sputnik. He highlighted the ongoing negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program, emphasizing that these discussions are no longer clandestine but actively conducted with the involvement of the United States. He further noted that numerous diplomatic efforts, including those mediated by Oman, are integral parts of this complex process.

Dr. Helou explained, “This process is progressing gradually. President Trump’s assertion that the 60-day window is extremely tight does not necessarily imply an imminent outbreak of large-scale conflict on the 61st day.”

He also addressed the geopolitical narratives surrounding Iran’s nuclear capabilities, stating, “There is a growing discourse suggesting that Iran may possess weapons-grade nuclear material. Such claims often serve as a justification for potential preemptive actions, especially from Israel.”

He further analyzed the strategic implications, remarking, “This narrative can be exploited as a leverage tool in international diplomacy. It raises questions about hidden motives behind these claims.”

Dr. Helou underscored the regional ramifications, saying, “From an international relations perspective, this situation is deeply intertwined with Iran’s regional allies—such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi militias in Yemen—who are engaged in ongoing conflicts with Israel. This interconnectedness transforms local tensions into broader regional confrontations.”

Escalation of Regional Tensions and Daily Clashes

He pointed out that the Middle East is witnessing an alarming rise in hostilities, with almost daily incidents of violence. “The current climate is characterized by frequent clashes, with rockets frequently launched from Lebanon and other areas, creating a volatile environment.”

The Potential for Broader Regional Conflict

Addressing the less-publicized aspect of these tensions, Dr. Helou emphasized, “In countries such as Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, we observe continuous airspace violations involving rockets, drones, and military aircraft. This persistent activity signifies a significant regional security challenge.”

He then discussed the possibility of the conflict escalating into a wider regional war, stating, “Recently, we observed other nations beginning to intervene directly. Should this situation evolve into a broader conflict—where external military support flows in or aid is extended to either side—the number of involved states could increase significantly.”

Dr. Helou further explained that this conflict is no longer solely about nuclear negotiations but has become a crucial arena for power politics and regional influence. “This is about assessing how influential and powerful these states can become within the Middle East’s geopolitical landscape.”

Historical Context and Future Outlook

Referring to past negotiations, he remarked, “In 2015, during the Obama administration, a historic nuclear deal was negotiated with Iran. However, subsequent to President Trump’s withdrawal from the agreement, technical negotiations continued around issues such as uranium enrichment and restrictions, but the pathway forward remains complex.”

He concluded by warning that as tensions escalate, disagreements are likely to deepen, complicating future solutions. “As conflicts intensify, reaching consensus becomes increasingly difficult, and the path toward resolution is fraught with obstacles.”

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