What Will Be the Minimum Retirement Pension? Four Scenarios Unveiled: SGK Expert Warns About Zero Increase

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Urgent Inflation Announcement and Its Impact on Salaries

As millions of retirees and civil servants approach a crucial financial milestone, the upcoming June inflation data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will be pivotal. This data, expected in the first week of July, will determine the precise adjustments to both civil servant salaries and retirement pensions, shaping their financial outlook for the upcoming period.

With the five-month wage increase difference already determined, and considering the confirmed inflation rate of 1.53% for May, retirees’ cumulative wage increase over this period stands at 15.09%. SGK expert Emin Yılmaz has analyzed various scenarios based on potential June inflation figures, providing detailed projections as follows:

• Scenario with 0.50% inflation: The total increase rate would be 15.67%, resulting in an average salary of 16,736 TL.
• Scenario with 1.00% inflation: The increase rate would reach 16.24%, with salaries rising to approximately 16,818 TL.
• Scenario with 1.50% inflation: The total wage increase would be 16.81%, bringing the average salary to around 16,901 TL.
• Scenario with 2.00% inflation: The increase could be as high as 17.40%, with salaries potentially reaching 16,986 TL.

Risks for Low-Income Retirees

One of the most significant concerns for retirees, especially those with lower base salaries, is the risk of receiving no salary increase. The government’s minimum monthly pension support currently stands at 14,469 TL, which serves as a critical threshold for many retirees. If the calculated salary increase falls below certain limits, approximately 2.5 million retirees could see zero adjustment in their pensions.

• With 0.50% inflation: Retirees earning below 12,508 TL might not see any increase.
• With 1.00% inflation: Those earning below 12,447 TL are at risk of no change.
• With 1.50% inflation: The cutoff is 12,386 TL.
• With 2.00% inflation: The threshold drops to 12,324 TL.

Enhanced Collective Bargaining Agreements for Civil Servants and Retired Civil Servants

In addition to inflation-based adjustments, civil servants and retired civil servants will benefit from a 6% salary increase effective July, as part of the 7th Period Collective Bargaining Agreement. When combined with the inflation adjustments, the total increase rates are projected as:

• 0.50% inflation scenario: Total increase of 14.58%
• 1.00% inflation scenario: Total increase of 15.14%
• 1.50% inflation scenario: Total increase of 15.71%
• 2.00% inflation scenario: Total increase of 16.28%

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